South Alabama @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

6-5 · Power #49

final

Final

Texas State

6-5 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -6

✓ TXST W

Total

▲ Over · 96 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 32–26 TXST

✗ USA (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -6

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -6

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 6-point road favorite at TXST, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 52–44 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 96 points went over 57, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 6.5; 56.2 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	BAY @ TCU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–30	L	O57
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WLLLW	4-7	36%	2-3	3-4
TXST LLWLL	5-6	45%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; TXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OUUUU	3-6	33%	6-5
TXST UUOUO	4-6	40%	6-5

Went over in Q3. Of 136 earlier overs in games with totals 53–61, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%
TXST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USA 4–7 TXST TXST leads · 11 games since 2013 · TXST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−6.2 →+3.7▲ 9.9#44

TXST+3.4 →−3.5▼ 6.9#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USA

Longer bar = better

TXST

#50

Offense

TXST better ▶

#26

#27

Defense

◀ USA better

#84

0.0 #73

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−0.7 #127

68 plays #57

Pace

TXST faster ▶

74 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #54	32.9 #115	USA
Yards / play	6.21 #42	5.84 #88	USA
PPA / play	+0.21 #38	+0.10 #71	USA
Success rate	42% #65	41% #60	Even

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #23	19.2 #21	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #34	5.04 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.04 #34	Even
Success rate	48% #13	37% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USA scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	7.3 #40	7.7 #70	15.0 #60	7.2 #54	7.5 #50	14.7 #42
TXST allowed	6.6 #95	8.3 #84	14.9 #93	8.2 #118	9.8 #126	18.0 #129

TXST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	10.0 #9	11.2 #19	21.2 #9	5.6 #79	7.7 #42	13.4 #61
USA allowed	2.5 #10	7.5 #68	9.9 #27	3.3 #12	6.0 #55	9.3 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.