Texas State @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

6-4 · Power #73

final

Final

Arkansas State

5-5 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -3

✓ ARST W

Total

▲ Over · 108 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 32–28 ARST

✗ TXST (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -3

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -3

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 3-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 77–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 108 points went over 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 3.4; 56.2 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ OHIO 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–45	L	O61
Very close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–21	W	U63.5
Very close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Very close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	24–26	L	U58.5
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	GAST @ USA 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	31–14	W	U58.5
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–24	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LLLWL	5-5	50%	3-2	3-3
ARST LLWWW	6-4	60%	3-2	5-4

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UUUOU	3-6	33%	6-4
ARST –UOUU	3-5	38%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 74 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-6 33%
ARST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+3.4 →−0.8▼ 4.2#69

ARST−20.5 →−10.2▲ 10.3#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TXST

Longer bar = better

ARST

#24

Offense

◀ TXST better

#81

#66

Defense

◀ TXST better

#98

−0.4 #105

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

−0.2 #90

73 plays #17

Pace

◀ TXST faster

65 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #21	30.8 #107	TXST
Yards / play	6.40 #30	6.20 #117	TXST
PPA / play	+0.21 #31	+0.18 #112	TXST
Success rate	49% #13	41% #55	TXST

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #96	28.5 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #67	5.62 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.06 #47	TXST
Success rate	41% #86	41% #52	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	10.0 #10	11.6 #17	21.6 #8	5.5 #83	7.8 #43	13.3 #61
ARST allowed	6.5 #96	10.1 #113	16.6 #110	7.2 #106	7.0 #80	14.2 #96

ARST scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	7.2 #44	3.5 #132	10.7 #107	5.9 #71	6.9 #63	12.8 #72
TXST allowed	5.9 #81	7.0 #62	12.9 #69	6.2 #84	9.4 #119	15.6 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.