UL Monroe @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff59°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-8 · Power #129

final

Final

Ole Miss

8-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -36.5

✓ ULM W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 11–47 MISS

✓ MISS (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -36.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -36.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -36.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 36.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 35–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 61.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 43.3 against an average line of 35.3; 61.3 points a game (usually 56.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs VAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-35.75	31–17	L	U65.5
Very close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-39	42–0	W	U60
Very close	UK vs NMSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-35.5	56–16	W	O61
Close	ISU vs KU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-34.5	59–7	W	O57
Close	OU vs KU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-38.5	62–9	W	O63
Close	USC vs COLO 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-34.5	55–17	W	O66
Close	TENN vs VAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-32	45–21	L	O64.5
Close	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-33	62–0	W	O60
Close	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-34.5	52–0	W	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WWLLL	4-6	40%	2-2	4-4
MISS LWWPL	6-3-1	67%	4-1-1	5-1-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOOUO	4-4	50%	2-8
MISS –UUOO	5-4	56%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-4 50%
MISS	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM+0.7 →−15.0▼ 15.7#127

MISS+4.5 →+13.0▲ 8.5#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ULM

Longer bar = better

MISS

#118

Offense

MISS better ▶

#20

#104

Defense

MISS better ▶

#77

+0.3 #44

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+0.8 #16

63 plays #111

Pace

MISS faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	ULM off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #126	25.8 #65	MISS
Yards / play	5.33 #89	5.52 #66	MISS
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	+0.12 #78	MISS
Success rate	35% #134	44% #97	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #17	33.2 #120	MISS
Yards / play	6.73 #13	5.84 #88	MISS
PPA / play	+0.27 #12	+0.15 #98	MISS
Success rate	45% #37	45% #108	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.8 #111	5.4 #118	9.2 #119	3.9 #113	5.3 #104	9.2 #120
MISS allowed	5.2 #62	7.2 #66	12.4 #56	6.2 #79	7.2 #87	13.4 #86

MISS scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	12.4 #4	6.3 #99	18.7 #22	7.3 #45	10.6 #5	17.9 #13
ULM allowed	7.9 #115	10.5 #117	18.4 #123	4.1 #32	10.7 #132	14.8 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.