Georgia @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

10-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee

7-3 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

UGA -9

✓ UGA W

Total

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 32–24 TENN

✓ UGA (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -9

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Road favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 75%, covered 53% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -9

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 9-point road favorite at TENN, the favorite won 3, covered 0, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 59, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

0 of 90%

Below normal · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 8.5; 64.8 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	51–45	L	O58
Close	TEX @ TCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	29–26	L	U56.25
Close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	FLA @ LSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	42–49	L	O61
Close	OSU @ MICH 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–42	L	O64.5
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	24–27	L	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA WLWLW	3-6-1	33%	0-2	3-6-1
TENN WLWWL	6-4	60%	4-1	0-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; TENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA –OOUO	5-4	56%	10-0
TENN UOOOU	5-4-1	56%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 45% of games with totals 55–63 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	10-0 100%	3-6-1 33%	5-4 56%
TENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+6.4 →+20.4▲ 14.0#4

TENN+9.7 →+13.0▲ 3.3#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UGA

Longer bar = better

TENN

Offense

◀ UGA better

#33

#13

Defense

◀ UGA better

#28

+0.3 #43

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #39

69 plays #44

Pace

Even

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #6	20.2 #29	UGA
Yards / play	7.29 #5	4.99 #26	UGA
PPA / play	+0.36 #5	+0.02 #30	UGA
Success rate	52% #6	37% #27	UGA

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #37	15.6 #6	UGA
Yards / play	6.58 #21	4.73 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #44	0.00 #19	UGA
Success rate	46% #29	36% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.5 #54	14.6 #2	21.1 #10	11.0 #3	8.5 #27	19.5 #5
TENN allowed	2.9 #18	6.6 #50	9.5 #25	6.4 #86	4.3 #16	10.7 #44

TENN scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	8.9 #16	9.9 #37	18.8 #21	6.5 #62	6.7 #72	13.2 #65
UGA allowed	4.5 #45	3.8 #7	8.3 #13	1.6 #3	5.7 #48	7.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.