Florida @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida

5-5 · Power #36

final

Final

Missouri

8-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -12.5

✓ FLA W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 21–33 MIZ

✓ MIZ (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -12.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIZ -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 45% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -12.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 12.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 33–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 12.3; 56.3 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.25	24–0	W	U54
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	MIAMI vs UVA 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	19–14	L	U54
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	MSU vs MD 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	40–21	W	O60.5
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-12.5	35–14	W	U56.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WWLLL	3-7	30%	1-3	2-4
MIZ LWWWW	7-3	70%	3-3	3-2

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA –OOOO	6-2	75%	5-5
MIZ –OUUU	5-4	56%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 127 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-2 75%
MIZ	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA−1.7 →+4.9▲ 6.6#37

MIZ+0.4 →+12.4▲ 12.0#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

FLA

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#42

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#22

#93

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#47

−0.2 #95

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.2 #46

69 plays #50

Pace

◀ FLA faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #52	22.3 #47	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #47	5.37 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.08 #55	Even
Success rate	45% #34	38% #29	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #33	27.4 #84	MIZ
Yards / play	6.71 #14	6.57 #132	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.21 #122	MIZ
Success rate	47% #23	38% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.7 #36	8.4 #59	16.1 #44	5.6 #83	7.5 #52	13.1 #64
MIZ allowed	4.8 #52	4.4 #14	9.2 #25	5.7 #72	7.4 #91	13.1 #85

MIZ scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.3 #42	10.5 #29	17.8 #29	4.2 #108	10.8 #4	15.0 #37
FLA allowed	8.2 #121	6.0 #34	14.2 #87	6.1 #82	6.5 #70	12.6 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.