Florida State @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Florida

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

11-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Florida

5-6 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

FSU -6.5

✓ FSU W

Total

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 32–25 FLA

✓ FSU (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -6.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 58% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -6.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 24–15; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 49, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 7.2; 55.1 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Very close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	26–16	W	U48
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Very close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	28–34	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WWLLL	6-5	55%	2-2	5-5
FLA WLLLW	4-7	36%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OOUUO	5-4	56%	11-0
FLA OOOOO	7-2	78%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
FLA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FSU 29–39 FLA (2 tied) FLA leads · 70 games since 1904 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+6.4 →+17.3▲ 10.9#10

FLA−1.7 →+5.2▲ 6.9#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

FSU

Longer bar = better

FLA

#22

Offense

◀ FSU better

#43

#17

Defense

◀ FSU better

#94

+0.9 #9

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

−0.4 #104

66 plays #80

Pace

FLA faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	40.1 #7	27.9 #86	FSU
Yards / play	6.89 #9	6.66 #132	FSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #22	+0.22 #124	FSU
Success rate	44% #50	39% #33	Even

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	FLA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #56	16.9 #12	FSU
Yards / play	6.22 #40	4.94 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #34	+0.02 #23	Even
Success rate	45% #41	36% #13	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.0 #45	12.1 #10	19.1 #16	10.0 #6	10.4 #6	20.4 #4
FLA allowed	7.7 #112	6.4 #41	14.1 #85	6.5 #88	6.8 #79	13.3 #85

FLA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.6 #35	7.6 #72	15.3 #55	6.4 #67	7.7 #42	14.1 #51
FSU allowed	3.6 #22	7.0 #56	10.6 #35	3.5 #19	2.7 #1	6.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.