Louisville vs Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisville

10-2 · Power #21

final

Final

Florida State

12-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ FSU W

Total

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 26–28 FSU

✓ FSU (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LOU WWLWL	6-6	50%	0-2	—
FSU WLLLW	7-5	58%	1-0	—

Venue/role: LOU neutral; FSU neutral. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU UUOOO	6-4	60%	10-2
FSU OUUOU	5-5	50%	12-0

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 54% of games with totals 42–50 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
FSU	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+2.1 →+11.3▲ 9.2#21

FSU+6.4 →+17.1▲ 10.7#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LOU

Longer bar = better

FSU

#21

Offense

Even

#28

#24

Defense

Even

#14

+0.3 #43

Turnovers

FSU better ▶

+0.9 #7

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ LOU faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #32	16.8 #9	FSU
Yards / play	6.57 #20	4.86 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #21	+0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	50% #9	35% #11	Even

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #9	20.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #15	5.26 #42	FSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #32	−0.02 #13	Even
Success rate	43% #55	37% #16	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.1 #25	9.2 #49	17.3 #33	7.8 #29	7.9 #37	15.8 #33
FSU allowed	3.3 #17	7.4 #63	10.8 #34	3.5 #14	2.5 #1	6.0 #4

FSU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	6.4 #53	11.7 #13	18.1 #24	9.8 #6	10.3 #7	20.1 #4
LOU allowed	1.8 #4	6.9 #51	8.7 #14	7.2 #101	4.2 #11	11.3 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.