Michigan vs Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · Neutral site

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Michigan

12-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Iowa

10-2 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

MICH -21.5

✓ MICH W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 29–8 IOWA

✓ MICH (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -21.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MICH WLWLW	6-5-1	55%	—	6-5-1
IOWA LL–L–	4-5-1	44%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: MICH neutral, as favorite; IOWA neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH OOUOO	6-5	55%	12-0
IOWA UU–U–	2-7	22%	10-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 61% of games with totals 32–40 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	10-0 100%	6-3-1 67%	6-3 67%
IOWA	8-2 80%	3-4-1 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+8.4 →+22.4▲ 14.0#2

IOWA+3.8 →+2.4▼ 1.4#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MICH

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#14

Offense

◀ MICH better

#134

Defense

Even

+1.2 #4

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−0.1 #81

62 plays #118

Pace

Even

60 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #13	12.2 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #32	4.04 #2	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.34 #5	−0.10 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #7	34% #5	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	IOWA off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #127	10.3 #1	MICH
Yards / play	4.14 #136	4.41 #5	MICH
PPA / play	−0.06 #136	−0.10 #2	MICH
Success rate	33% #135	33% #4	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.8 #16	11.5 #17	20.3 #12	11.1 #2	6.2 #82	17.3 #14
IOWA allowed	1.6 #2	3.6 #5	5.2 #1	3.3 #11	3.8 #7	7.0 #7

IOWA scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	2.7 #128	6.3 #97	8.9 #124	3.0 #123	6.1 #84	9.1 #118
MICH allowed	2.2 #7	3.3 #3	5.4 #2	1.8 #3	3.1 #3	4.8 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.