Alabama vs Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential, 2023)

Mon, Jan 1, 2024, 5:00 PM ESTCFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff60°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

12-1 · Power #7

final

Final

Michigan

13-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -2

✓ MICH W

Total

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 23–26 MICH

✓ MICH (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -2

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -2

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 2-point neutral-site favorite against ALA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 46, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3.3; 45.5 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OKST vs ND 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-1	37–35	W	O45
Close	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3	33–18	W	U53
Close	UGA vs MICH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	34–11	W	U46
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Loose	LOU vs FSU 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & spread	-1.5	6–16	L	U45.5
Loose	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & season form	-6.25	24–41	L	O48.75
Loose	CLEM vs ISU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.75	20–13	W	U45
Loose	HOU vs AUB 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.25	17–13	W	U49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ALA WWWLW	9-4	69%	1-0	1-0
MICH LWLWW	7-5-1	58%	1-0	7-5-1

Venue/role: ALA neutral, as underdog; MICH neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOOOU	8-3	73%	12-1
MICH OUOOU	6-6	50%	13-0

Went over in OT. Of 154 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	7-2 78%
MICH	10-0 100%	7-2-1 78%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+13.1 →+18.2▲ 5.1#9

MICH+8.4 →+22.3▲ 13.9#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ALA

Longer bar = better

MICH

#24

Offense

Even

#18

#15

Defense

Even

+0.6 #19

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.3 #2

63 plays #108

Pace

Even

62 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	ALA off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #17	9.5 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #28	4.29 #5	MICH
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	−0.13 #1	Even
Success rate	45% #38	32% #1	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #12	18.4 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #45	4.94 #17	ALA
PPA / play	+0.32 #8	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	50% #7	36% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.2 #21	9.7 #38	17.9 #19	9.2 #7	7.9 #35	17.2 #15
MICH allowed	2.0 #3	3.0 #3	5.0 #1	1.6 #3	2.8 #1	4.5 #1

MICH scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.9 #14	10.6 #23	19.5 #13	11.0 #2	6.2 #87	17.2 #15
ALA allowed	4.8 #51	5.3 #20	10.2 #28	3.9 #19	4.3 #12	8.2 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.