Clemson vs Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, 2023)

Fri, Dec 29, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTTaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Neutral site

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Clemson

8-4 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

7-5 · Power #44

final

Closing spread

CLEM -3.5

✓ UK W

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 24–20 UK

✓ CLEM (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -3.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLEM -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -3.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against UK, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 38–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 44, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3.9; 44.1 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-5	24–17	W	U45
Very close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Very close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Very close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Very close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Very close	WISC vs ND 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	13–41	L	O44
Very close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	UK vs NCST 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3	23–21	L	U50.5
Close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-2	12–16	L	U45.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CLEM LWWWW	6-6	50%	—	5-5
UK LWLLW	6-6	50%	—	1-4

Venue/role: CLEM neutral, as favorite; UK neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UOOUU	5-5	50%	8-4
UK OUOUO	7-4	64%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 123 earlier overs in games with totals 40–48, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
UK	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM−4.1 →+11.7▲ 15.8#20

UK+6.1 →+3.5▼ 2.6#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CLEM

Longer bar = better

#73

Offense

Even

#69

#10

Defense

◀ CLEM better

#64

+0.3 #40

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #48

77 plays #3

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

55 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #58	24.8 #59	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #95	5.29 #46	UK
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.09 #63	UK
Success rate	45% #35	43% #88	CLEM

When UK has the ball

Advantage: CLEM defense

	UK off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #59	19.9 #22	CLEM
Yards / play	6.05 #48	4.48 #7	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	−0.07 #6	CLEM
Success rate	40% #93	33% #3	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	5.9 #67	10.4 #27	16.3 #42	7.4 #45	5.2 #106	12.6 #74
UK allowed	6.3 #90	6.7 #43	13.0 #68	5.0 #46	6.8 #74	11.8 #61

UK scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.3 #59	8.0 #61	14.3 #68	8.3 #18	6.0 #86	14.3 #43
CLEM allowed	5.4 #70	2.4 #1	7.8 #7	4.6 #40	6.0 #55	10.6 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.