Virginia Tech vs Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Military Bowl, 2023)

Wed, Dec 27, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTMilitary Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff54°F8 mphgusts 16Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Virginia Tech

6-6 · Power #41

▲ winner

Final

Tulane

11-2 · Power #55

final

Closing spread

VT -13

✓ VT W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 28–18 TULN

✓ VT (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -13

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVT -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -13

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 13-point neutral-site favorite against TULN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 10.2; 48.5 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75
Close	KSU vs LSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-9.5	42–20	W	O47
Close	WVU vs ARMY 2020 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-9.75	24–21	L	O40.5
Loose	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Loose	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Loose	MICH vs IOWA 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & spread	-12	42–3	W	O44
Loose	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-15	63–7	W	O54.25
Loose	MEM vs FAU 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	25–10	W	U52.75
Loose	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Loose	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	23–25	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
VT WLWLW	7-5	58%	—	5-1
TULN LLWWL	5-8	38%	—	0-1

Venue/role: VT neutral, as favorite; TULN neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUOOO	7-4	64%	6-6
TULN UUUUU	1-11	8%	11-2

Went over in Q3. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-3 67%
TULN	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →+3.9▲ 0.3#42

TULN+6.3 →+2.8▼ 3.5#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

TULN

#63

Offense

Even

#64

#43

Defense

TULN better ▶

#29

0.0 #73

Turnovers

TULN better ▶

+0.6 #22

65 plays #79

Pace

Even

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	VT off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #59	18.9 #19	TULN
Yards / play	5.91 #53	5.13 #31	TULN
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	+0.03 #24	TULN
Success rate	42% #70	40% #42	TULN

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	TULN off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #71	24.3 #57	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #56	5.18 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.09 #60	Even
Success rate	43% #56	38% #19	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VT scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	4.1 #108	11.7 #13	15.8 #53	7.3 #47	5.5 #99	12.8 #67
TULN allowed	3.2 #13	5.5 #28	8.6 #13	5.0 #47	5.3 #38	10.3 #32

TULN scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.2 #23	8.3 #59	16.5 #38	6.1 #73	4.2 #127	10.3 #105
VT allowed	4.8 #48	7.7 #70	12.4 #56	7.5 #110	4.3 #13	11.8 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.