Virginia Tech @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

5-6 · Power #41

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

3-8 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

VT -1.5

✓ VT W

Total

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 26–24 UVA

✓ VT (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -1.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVT -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 40% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -1.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 1.5-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 55–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 53, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 2.1; 58.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	STAN @ ORST 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	27–24	W	U55
Very close	BC @ GT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	41–30	W	O55
Very close	VT @ BC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	3–17	L	U51
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	SC @ MIZ 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-0.75	28–31	L	O55.75
Very close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Very close	MINN @ PUR 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–49	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WWLWL	6-5	55%	2-3	4-1
UVA WWLWW	8-3	73%	4-1	7-2

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUOO	6-4	60%	5-6
UVA POOOO	7-2-2	78%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 155 earlier overs in games with totals 49–57, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
UVA	3-7 30%	8-2 80%	6-2-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →+2.1▼ 1.5#54

UVA−11.2 →−2.7▲ 8.5#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

UVA

#74

Offense

Even

#86

#55

Defense

◀ VT better

#107

−0.1 #83

Turnovers

◀ VT better

−0.5 #111

66 plays #80

Pace

UVA faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: VT offense

	VT off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #76	31.8 #113	VT
Yards / play	5.71 #67	5.87 #93	VT
PPA / play	+0.10 #79	+0.18 #105	VT
Success rate	42% #72	45% #115	VT

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	UVA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #90	24.9 #62	VT
Yards / play	5.35 #90	5.34 #53	VT
PPA / play	+0.09 #85	+0.11 #74	Even
Success rate	42% #78	38% #30	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VT scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	3.5 #116	11.5 #18	15.0 #59	5.8 #74	5.4 #104	11.2 #94
UVA allowed	4.9 #53	9.1 #99	14.0 #84	7.5 #112	9.7 #122	17.3 #123

UVA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	6.0 #67	5.2 #123	11.2 #97	8.1 #27	4.3 #124	12.4 #76
VT allowed	5.2 #62	8.4 #87	13.5 #80	7.3 #108	4.1 #14	11.4 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.