Maryland @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F2 mphgusts 7DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

6-5 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

6-5 · Power #51

final

Closing spread

MD -2

✓ MD W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 24–23 RUTG

✓ MD (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -2

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 46%, covered 42% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -2

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 2-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 42–24; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 45, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 2.2; 38.7 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Very close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLLWW	5-6	45%	2-2	4-4
RUTG LWP–L	6-2-2	75%	4-1-1	1-1-2

Venue/role: MD away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OOOUO	7-3	70%	6-5
RUTG OOO–U	5-4	56%	6-5

Went over in Q3. Of 119 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-2 78%
RUTG	5-5 50%	5-2-2 71%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MD 12–10 RUTG MD leads · 22 games since 1920 · RUTG has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+3.0 →+6.1▲ 3.1#34

RUTG+1.6 →+2.4▲ 0.8#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#57

Offense

◀ MD better

#102

#44

Defense

Even

#39

+0.1 #57

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #46

67 plays #59

Pace

◀ MD faster

61 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #62	19.1 #21	RUTG
Yards / play	5.70 #68	4.70 #11	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	+0.01 #22	RUTG
Success rate	44% #50	44% #101	MD

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	RUTG off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #101	23.2 #52	MD
Yards / play	4.96 #117	5.00 #26	MD
PPA / play	+0.07 #89	+0.05 #36	MD
Success rate	39% #101	41% #61	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MD scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.9 #28	7.0 #82	14.9 #61	5.7 #77	7.8 #39	13.5 #58
RUTG allowed	2.8 #13	5.2 #21	8.0 #10	4.0 #28	7.1 #87	11.1 #47

RUTG scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.6 #94	6.3 #96	10.9 #99	3.1 #123	8.5 #26	11.5 #87
MD allowed	7.5 #108	4.3 #11	11.7 #47	4.6 #42	6.8 #78	11.5 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.