Auburn vs Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (TransPerfect Music City Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 30, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTTransPerfect Music City Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff46°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

6-6 · Power #40

final

Final

Maryland

7-5 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -4.5

✓ MD W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 26–23 MD

✗ AUB (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -4.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAUB -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -4.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite against MD, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 31–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 48, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 3.8; 44.3 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Very close	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Very close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & situation	-3	38–24	W	O48
Very close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Very close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Very close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Very close	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	24–17	W	U45
Very close	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Very close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & spread	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
AUB WWWLW	6-6	50%	—	3-3
MD LLWWW	6-6	50%	—	1-2

Venue/role: AUB neutral, as favorite; MD neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB PUOUO	5-6-1	45%	6-6
MD OOUOO	8-3	73%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 44–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%
MD	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.4 →+5.8▼ 5.6#36

MD+3.0 →+6.7▲ 3.7#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

AUB

Longer bar = better

#71

Offense

MD better ▶

#49

#54

Defense

MD better ▶

#39

+0.1 #58

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

0.0 #73

63 plays #111

Pace

MD faster ▶

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	AUB off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #66	23.3 #49	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #75	4.95 #20	MD
PPA / play	+0.12 #72	+0.04 #29	MD
Success rate	42% #69	41% #57	Even

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #55	21.9 #34	AUB
Yards / play	5.91 #56	5.67 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	+0.10 #69	MD
Success rate	44% #46	40% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.9 #44	7.9 #65	14.8 #63	7.5 #40	4.9 #113	12.4 #77
MD allowed	7.1 #103	5.1 #18	12.2 #54	4.3 #34	6.8 #74	11.1 #43

MD scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	9.0 #15	7.0 #83	16.0 #44	5.8 #75	7.8 #42	13.6 #56
AUB allowed	5.6 #72	3.3 #5	8.9 #14	6.3 #83	6.7 #69	13.0 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.