Bowling Green vs Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Quick Lane Bowl, 2023)

Tue, Dec 26, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTQuick Lane Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

7-5 · Power #80

final

Final

Minnesota

5-7 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -2.5

✓ MINN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 22–24 MINN

✓ MINN (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MINN won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 3.2; 47.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs TLSA 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-1	28–26	W	O45.5
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3	30–27	P	O43
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	BGSU vs NMSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3.25	19–24	L	U50.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	UK vs NCST 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3	23–21	L	U50.5
Close	GAST vs WKU 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.25	39–21	W	O50.5
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-7	23–25	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BGSU WLWWW	9-3	75%	—	5-2
MINN WLLLL	3-9	25%	—	2-5

Venue/role: BGSU neutral, as underdog; MINN neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OOOOU	6-4	60%	7-5
MINN UOOUU	4-6	40%	5-7

Went over in Q4. Of 123 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
MINN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−3.8▼ 0.8#84

MINN−0.1 →−3.4▼ 3.3#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

BGSU

Longer bar = better

MINN

#78

Offense

◀ BGSU better

#112

#44

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#92

+0.7 #19

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

+0.3 #39

61 plays #127

Pace

MINN faster ▶

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #75	26.9 #73	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #84	6.01 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.17 #103	Even
Success rate	42% #68	44% #91	BGSU

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	MINN off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #117	23.5 #52	BGSU
Yards / play	4.80 #122	5.28 #46	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.02 #23	BGSU
Success rate	40% #97	41% #54	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	6.0 #64	10.3 #29	16.3 #43	5.4 #82	4.6 #117	10.0 #108
MINN allowed	5.7 #76	7.7 #69	13.3 #72	6.6 #93	6.5 #66	13.1 #81

MINN scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	3.7 #115	7.6 #74	11.3 #101	3.0 #122	5.7 #97	8.7 #121
BGSU allowed	7.2 #104	5.3 #22	12.4 #55	6.3 #80	4.8 #24	11.1 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.