Utah vs Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTSRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Utah

8-4 · Power #33

final

Final

Northwestern

7-5 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -7

✓ NU W

Total

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 24–16 NU

✗ UTAH (71%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -7

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTAH -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -7

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 7-point neutral-site favorite against NU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 14–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 44, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 7.5; 45.6 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	GASO vs LT 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-7.25	38–3	W	U48
Close	WVU vs ARMY 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-9.75	24–21	L	O40.5
Close	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-5	24–17	W	U45
Close	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Close	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTAH LWWLL	6-5-1	55%	—	4-2-1
NU WWWWW	8-4	67%	1-0	6-3

Venue/role: UTAH neutral, as favorite; NU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UOOOU	5-6	45%	8-4
NU OUUUO	6-6	50%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 40–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+1.7 →+7.1▲ 5.4#30

NU−3.1 →−1.9▲ 1.2#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

UTAH

Longer bar = better

#94

Offense

Even

#107

#33

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#64

+0.4 #30

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+0.8 #11

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	UTAH off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #84	23.8 #53	NU
Yards / play	5.23 #101	5.29 #48	NU
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	+0.09 #63	NU
Success rate	41% #86	44% #92	Even

When NU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	NU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #105	19.8 #23	UTAH
Yards / play	4.71 #126	5.32 #50	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.07 #88	+0.07 #43	UTAH
Success rate	39% #109	37% #17	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.5 #78	7.6 #74	13.1 #77	5.7 #80	5.8 #95	11.4 #91
NU allowed	4.5 #39	5.9 #30	10.4 #30	6.0 #73	7.2 #87	13.2 #82

NU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.7 #94	6.0 #100	10.7 #104	4.3 #106	7.3 #51	11.6 #86
UTAH allowed	6.6 #92	4.6 #13	11.2 #39	3.8 #18	4.8 #24	8.6 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.