Colorado @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff35°F6 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Colorado

4-7 · Power #72

final

Final

Utah

7-4 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -21.5

✓ COLO W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 16–35 UTAH

✓ UTAH (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -21.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTAH -21.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–23.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 46% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -21.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 21.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 43, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.1 against an average line of 19.6; 49.5 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-20	44–0	W	O42
Close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-18	20–21	L	P41
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	MSST vs USM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	41–20	W	O47.5
Close	TCU vs LT 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	52–10	W	O50
Loose	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Loose	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-22	28–7	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO LWWWL	6-4-1	60%	2-2-1	5-2
UTAH WLWWL	6-4-1	60%	4-2	4-1-1

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO OUUOO	5-5	50%	4-7
UTAH OUOOO	5-5	50%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 39–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%
UTAH	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

COLO 33–37 UTAH (3 tied) UTAH leads · 73 games since 1903 · UTAH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+3.1 →−1.9▼ 5.0#73

UTAH+1.7 →+7.5▲ 5.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

COLO

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#71

Offense

◀ COLO better

#95

#125

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#33

+0.9 #8

Turnovers

◀ COLO better

+0.4 #33

72 plays #22

Pace

◀ COLO faster

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	COLO off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #56	20.0 #29	UTAH
Yards / play	5.19 #99	5.26 #43	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.05 #39	Even
Success rate	42% #77	37% #19	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #83	35.9 #130	UTAH
Yards / play	5.23 #97	6.35 #122	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.21 #121	Even
Success rate	40% #89	47% #127	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	6.3 #57	6.5 #90	12.8 #85	4.5 #104	9.9 #11	14.4 #45
UTAH allowed	7.2 #105	4.1 #10	11.3 #41	4.1 #31	4.6 #25	8.7 #18

UTAH scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.4 #81	7.7 #67	13.1 #79	5.5 #81	6.0 #87	11.5 #87
COLO allowed	7.5 #109	10.7 #122	18.3 #121	8.6 #123	7.5 #94	16.1 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.