Arizona @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

8-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

3-8 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -13.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 32–18 ASU

✓ ARIZ (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -13.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARIZ -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -13.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 13.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 59–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 50, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 13.4; 59 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Very close	IOWA @ ILL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14	35–21	P	O52.5
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	19–6	W	U45.5
Very close	AUB @ VAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	31–15	W	U49.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Very close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Very close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-17	42–7	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWWLW	9-2	82%	3-2	3-2
ASU WWLWL	5-5-1	50%	2-4-1	5-4-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUUOO	2-8	20%	8-3
ASU UOOUO	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 165 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	2-7 22%
ASU	2-8 20%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARIZ 43–45 ASU (1 tied) ASU leads · 89 games since 1931 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+1.3 →+9.5▲ 8.2#22

ASU+0.4 →−6.1▼ 6.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

ASU

#20

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#124

#50

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#100

−0.2 #96

Turnovers

◀ ARIZ better

−0.8 #130

67 plays #72

Pace

ASU faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #35	29.4 #101	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.59 #19	5.64 #74	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.18 #107	ARIZ
Success rate	52% #7	46% #118	ARIZ

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	ASU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #131	20.6 #35	ARIZ
Yards / play	4.75 #125	5.33 #51	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.06 #44	ARIZ
Success rate	37% #120	42% #69	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	5.9 #70	8.5 #56	14.4 #70	7.1 #53	9.5 #15	16.5 #22
ASU allowed	7.3 #106	8.0 #79	15.3 #101	4.5 #40	9.5 #120	14.1 #96

ASU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	4.1 #106	5.9 #108	10.0 #108	2.8 #127	4.5 #122	7.3 #129
ARIZ allowed	5.3 #65	5.5 #28	10.8 #36	3.7 #20	4.1 #14	7.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.