California @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

California

5-6 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

7-4 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

UCLA -9.5

✓ CAL W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 21–31 UCLA

✗ UCLA (76%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -9.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 48% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -9.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 9.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 33–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 10.6; 58.7 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	34–10	W	U51
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	WASH vs STAN 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-12	26–31	L	O49.5
Very close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LWLWW	5-6	45%	2-3	3-4
UCLA WLLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OOOOU	5-4	56%	5-6
UCLA UUUUU	2-7	22%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 57% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
UCLA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+15.6 →+0.7▼ 14.9#60

UCLA+2.8 →+8.5▲ 5.7#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CAL

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#69

Offense

Even

#72

#110

Defense

UCLA better ▶

#12

−0.1 #85

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

+0.3 #41

73 plays #13

Pace

Even

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	CAL off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #42	16.7 #11	UCLA
Yards / play	5.53 #78	4.53 #8	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	−0.07 #5	UCLA
Success rate	42% #74	37% #22	UCLA

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #69	35.0 #126	UCLA
Yards / play	5.90 #57	5.94 #95	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.09 #85	+0.16 #98	Even
Success rate	42% #78	46% #122	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.5 #36	9.5 #44	16.9 #36	7.8 #33	6.7 #69	14.5 #44
UCLA allowed	3.9 #24	4.8 #15	8.7 #16	4.5 #40	3.5 #5	8.0 #13

UCLA scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	7.0 #43	7.1 #83	14.1 #72	6.5 #63	6.8 #66	13.4 #61
CAL allowed	8.7 #126	10.5 #120	19.2 #124	6.2 #78	9.6 #124	15.8 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.