Wyoming @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff30°F4 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wyoming

7-4 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

2-9 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

WYO -11.5

✓ WYO W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 27–16 NEV

✓ WYO (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -11.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWYO -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 53% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -11.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as an 11.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 42–6; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 18 against an average line of 11.2; 51.6 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5
Very close	FAU @ FIU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	38–19	W	O42
Very close	SDSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	28–20	L	O41
Very close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Very close	TROY @ ARST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	48–19	W	O44
Very close	FAU @ USM 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	31–45	L	O43.5
Very close	NAVY @ TEM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	38–14	W	O42.5
Very close	FRES @ UNM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.75	41–9	W	O40.25
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	19–6	W	U45.5
Very close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO WLWLW	6-4-1	60%	2-2	2-2-1
NEV WWLLW	6-5	55%	2-3	5-4

Venue/role: WYO away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO OUUUO	3-6	33%	7-4
NEV UOUOO	4-6	40%	2-9

Went over in Q4. Of 71 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYO	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	3-6 33%
NEV	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−2.7 →−4.5▼ 1.8#87

NEV−18.4 →−16.4▲ 2.0#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WYO

Longer bar = better

NEV

#76

Offense

◀ WYO better

#127

#70

Defense

◀ WYO better

#121

+0.7 #19

Turnovers

◀ WYO better

−0.2 #94

58 plays #132

Pace

NEV faster ▶

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: WYO offense

	WYO off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #85	32.6 #114	WYO
Yards / play	5.42 #83	6.93 #136	WYO
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.19 #110	WYO
Success rate	42% #66	46% #123	WYO

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: WYO defense

	NEV off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #124	24.5 #58	WYO
Yards / play	4.64 #127	5.30 #49	WYO
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	+0.10 #66	WYO
Success rate	36% #128	44% #105	WYO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	6.5 #53	8.8 #54	15.3 #56	4.6 #101	3.4 #131	8.0 #126
NEV allowed	7.6 #112	7.4 #64	15.0 #95	8.9 #124	8.7 #109	17.6 #126

NEV scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	3.9 #112	5.2 #124	9.1 #119	3.5 #118	5.8 #95	9.3 #116
WYO allowed	6.2 #87	5.2 #21	11.4 #40	3.9 #24	8.0 #98	11.9 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.