San José State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San José State

6-5 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

UNLV

9-2 · Power #68

final

Closing spread

UNLV -1

✓ SJSU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 29–30 UNLV

✗ UNLV (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -1

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNLV -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3 since 2023: won 54%, covered 47% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNLV -1

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 1-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 37–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 9.3 against an average line of 2.6; 55.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	WKU vs UAB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.25	20–17	W	U60.5
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	23–26	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WWWWL	7-3-1	70%	4-0-1	2-2-1
UNLV LWWWW	10-1	91%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OUUOU	5-4	56%	6-5
UNLV UUOUO	6-5	55%	9-2

Went over in Q4. Of 108 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	4-4 50%
UNLV	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−9.4 →+0.6▲ 10.0#61

UNLV−2.6 →+1.1▲ 3.7#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SJSU

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#33

Offense

Even

#34

#76

Defense

Even

#68

+1.1 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #13

62 plays #114

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #31	24.5 #60	SJSU
Yards / play	6.42 #32	5.78 #84	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.11 #75	SJSU
Success rate	46% #32	40% #52	Even

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #18	25.3 #65	UNLV
Yards / play	6.19 #40	5.41 #61	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.15 #94	UNLV
Success rate	43% #56	43% #82	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	7.2 #41	10.9 #23	18.1 #20	8.5 #18	6.4 #77	14.9 #38
UNLV allowed	4.1 #35	7.7 #72	11.8 #49	6.3 #85	6.5 #69	12.7 #73

UNLV scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.2 #13	9.9 #35	19.1 #16	8.4 #24	8.5 #25	16.8 #19
SJSU allowed	2.7 #11	9.5 #106	12.2 #57	5.1 #53	8.0 #98	13.1 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.