San Diego State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F2 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Diego State

3-7 · Power #112

final

Final

San José State

5-5 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -16

✓ SDSU W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 18–34 SJSU

✓ SJSU (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -16

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSJSU -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 14–18 since 2023: won 93%, covered 51% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -16

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 16-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 24–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 15.5; 50.3 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Very close	UTSA vs ECU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-17.5	41–27	L	O48
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Very close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LWLLW	5-5	50%	3-1	3-3
SJSU PWWWW	7-2-1	78%	3-2	5-0

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OOUPU	4-4-1	50%	3-7
SJSU –OUUO	5-3	63%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 44–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-4-1 50%
SJSU	5-5 50%	7-2-1 78%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU+1.0 →−11.6▼ 12.6#118

SJSU−9.4 →+0.9▲ 10.3#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SDSU

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#99

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#33

#109

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#84

+0.1 #56

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

+1.1 #4

63 plays #111

Pace

Even

64 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #117	26.5 #70	SJSU
Yards / play	5.08 #108	5.49 #66	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.18 #105	Even
Success rate	42% #71	44% #94	SDSU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #25	27.9 #88	SJSU
Yards / play	6.35 #32	6.08 #107	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.19 #115	SJSU
Success rate	45% #39	47% #125	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.7 #114	5.7 #114	9.4 #116	1.8 #131	8.1 #32	9.9 #110
SJSU allowed	2.3 #9	10.1 #115	12.4 #59	5.6 #65	8.5 #106	14.1 #95

SJSU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	7.9 #31	11.0 #21	18.9 #18	8.7 #18	6.3 #83	15.0 #37
SDSU allowed	2.4 #10	11.1 #129	13.5 #76	6.9 #96	6.0 #55	12.9 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.