UNLV @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

8-2 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

8-2 · Power #52

final

Closing spread

AFA -3

✓ UNLV W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 24–28 AFA

✗ AFA (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 3-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 31–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 3.4; 45.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	23–21	L	U45
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	UAB vs LIB 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–36	L	U49
Very close	APP vs UL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–24	L	U51.5
Very close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-5	37–10	W	O46
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WLWWW	9-1	90%	5-0	4-0
AFA LPWLL	4-5-1	44%	2-2	4-5-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUUOU	5-5	50%	8-2
AFA OUUUU	4-6	40%	8-2

Went over in Q3. Of 132 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	5-5 50%
AFA	8-2 80%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UNLV 8–19 AFA AFA leads · 27 games since 1981 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.6 →+0.4▲ 3.0#62

AFA+5.5 →+2.4▼ 3.1#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNLV

Longer bar = better

AFA

#33

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#47

#64

Defense

AFA better ▶

#17

+1.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.6 #120

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #18	15.7 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #45	4.32 #6	AFA
PPA / play	+0.25 #19	+0.02 #25	Even
Success rate	44% #49	38% #31	Even

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #64	24.3 #55	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #62	5.79 #85	AFA
PPA / play	+0.20 #36	+0.10 #67	AFA
Success rate	47% #25	40% #50	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.4 #12	10.2 #31	19.6 #16	7.8 #34	9.0 #20	16.8 #20
AFA allowed	4.4 #39	6.3 #43	10.7 #36	1.7 #4	3.3 #6	5.0 #3

AFA scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.3 #83	9.1 #47	14.4 #68	6.9 #54	7.2 #62	14.1 #51
UNLV allowed	3.8 #29	6.5 #48	10.3 #31	6.9 #99	7.1 #84	14.0 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.