Air Force @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

8-3 · Power #52

final

Final

Boise State

6-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -7

✓ BOIS W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 22–28 BOIS

✓ BOIS (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 7-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 27–19; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 5.8; 49 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Very close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	37–30	W	O47
Very close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	37–10	W	O46
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Very close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	31–20	W	O47.5
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA PWLLL	4-6-1	40%	2-1-1	—
BOIS LWLWW	5-4-2	56%	4-0-1	4-2-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UUUUO	5-6	45%	8-3
BOIS OUOUU	5-4	56%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 103 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	7-3 70%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
BOIS	6-4 60%	5-3-2 63%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA+5.5 →+1.7▼ 3.8#56

BOIS−9.9 →+2.3▲ 12.2#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

AFA

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#48

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#31

#20

Defense

◀ AFA better

#81

−0.5 #112

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

−0.1 #80

63 plays #109

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #64	25.8 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #62	6.08 #107	AFA
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.13 #84	AFA
Success rate	47% #25	42% #67	AFA

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #35	17.1 #13	AFA
Yards / play	6.43 #29	4.62 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.04 #31	Even
Success rate	47% #22	38% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.5 #78	10.1 #31	15.5 #50	6.3 #66	6.5 #74	12.8 #67
BOIS allowed	5.0 #58	8.8 #91	13.8 #81	3.9 #28	8.1 #102	12.0 #66

BOIS scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	5.1 #86	12.7 #8	17.8 #26	6.0 #69	8.6 #23	14.6 #43
AFA allowed	4.6 #43	6.4 #41	11.0 #39	2.8 #8	3.3 #6	6.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.