Colorado State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 11:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

5-6 · Power #109

final

Final

Hawai'i

4-8 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -5.5

✓ HAW W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 29–25 HAW

✗ CSU (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -5.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCSU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCSU -5.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 5.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 4.6; 51.5 points a game (usually 53.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	29–0	W	U54
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	21–14	W	U55
Very close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–10	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WLLLL	4-7	36%	3-2	0-4
HAW LLWWL	3-8-1	27%	1-4-1	3-6

Venue/role: CSU away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU UUUUO	6-5	55%	5-6
HAW OUUUO	6-6	50%	4-8

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 56% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
HAW	4-6 40%	2-7-1 22%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−7.1 →−8.5▼ 1.4#109

HAW−6.5 →−13.4▼ 6.9#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#81

Offense

◀ CSU better

#108

#79

Defense

◀ CSU better

#104

−0.5 #115

Turnovers

◀ CSU better

−0.9 #131

70 plays #37

Pace

◀ CSU faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #76	32.9 #116	CSU
Yards / play	5.70 #71	6.15 #112	CSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.17 #103	Even
Success rate	42% #76	43% #86	Even

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: CSU defense

	HAW off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #111	29.8 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #105	5.59 #69	CSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.11 #75	CSU
Success rate	40% #104	42% #70	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	7.0 #43	5.7 #113	12.7 #84	3.0 #123	9.9 #11	12.9 #67
HAW allowed	9.3 #128	10.3 #118	19.5 #125	6.3 #79	7.2 #88	13.4 #86

HAW scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.6 #128	6.4 #93	9.0 #123	4.8 #95	7.2 #58	11.9 #82
CSU allowed	5.2 #64	7.4 #64	12.5 #59	7.2 #105	8.7 #110	15.9 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.