Fresno State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

8-3 · Power #71

final

Final

San Diego State

3-8 · Power #112

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -4.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 28–22 SDSU

✗ FRES (65%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -4.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 47% (102 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -4.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 4.5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 33–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 4.9; 51 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Very close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	3–10	L	U47
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LLWLL	4-7	36%	2-3	3-6
SDSU WLLWW	6-5	55%	2-4	4-3

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUOOU	5-4	56%	8-3
SDSU OUPUU	4-5-1	44%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 146 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%
SDSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FRES 13–20 SDSU SDSU leads · 33 games since 1969 · SDSU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES+4.2 →−1.6▼ 5.8#72

SDSU+1.0 →−11.6▼ 12.6#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

FRES

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#58

Offense

◀ FRES better

#104

#64

Defense

◀ FRES better

#110

+1.0 #6

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

0.0 #64

69 plays #39

Pace

◀ FRES faster

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #45	27.5 #83	FRES
Yards / play	5.50 #81	6.15 #113	FRES
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.20 #114	FRES
Success rate	43% #53	47% #129	FRES

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	SDSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #122	23.8 #52	FRES
Yards / play	5.04 #112	5.52 #66	FRES
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.12 #78	FRES
Success rate	42% #77	41% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	7.9 #28	7.5 #76	15.4 #54	8.5 #20	6.3 #80	14.7 #43
SDSU allowed	2.2 #8	11.0 #125	13.2 #72	6.9 #97	6.1 #61	13.0 #74

SDSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.0 #108	5.5 #119	9.5 #115	1.6 #131	7.6 #47	9.3 #116
FRES allowed	5.5 #75	7.1 #58	12.6 #62	4.0 #26	6.5 #70	10.5 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.