New Mexico @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F3 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico

3-7 · Power #117

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

8-2 · Power #71

final

Closing spread

FRES -22

✓ UNM W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 18–39 FRES

✗ FRES (94%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -22

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -22

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Line context

Home favorites of 20–24 since 2023: won 90%, covered 49% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -22

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 22-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 25–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 58, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 21.3; 54.7 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-21	45–0	W	U58
Very close	TULN vs UAB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-22	35–23	L	U58.5
Very close	UAB vs UTSA 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-21.5	21–13	L	U55.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Very close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	41–28	L	O55
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	20–13	L	U62.5
Very close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Very close	HOU vs TEM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-20	43–36	L	O56
Very close	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5
Very close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM LWLLL	4-6	40%	2-3	3-4
FRES LLLWL	4-6	40%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOOOU	8-2	80%	3-7
FRES –OUOO	5-3	63%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 46% of games with totals 54–62 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
FRES	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UNM 6–16 FRES FRES leads · 22 games since 1947 · FRES has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.8 →−13.6▼ 1.8#124

FRES+4.2 →+0.6▼ 3.6#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNM

Longer bar = better

FRES

#45

Offense

Even

#53

#134

Defense

FRES better ▶

#55

−0.7 #125

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+1.0 #7

63 plays #110

Pace

FRES faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #76	23.7 #52	FRES
Yards / play	6.13 #46	5.33 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	+0.10 #68	UNM
Success rate	48% #22	40% #49	UNM

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #36	36.0 #131	FRES
Yards / play	5.58 #79	6.95 #136	FRES
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.30 #135	FRES
Success rate	44% #48	50% #135	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	5.4 #79	9.4 #41	14.8 #63	4.4 #106	6.3 #83	10.7 #104
FRES allowed	5.8 #79	6.9 #55	12.7 #63	3.8 #27	6.5 #70	10.3 #37

FRES scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.0 #28	7.5 #75	15.5 #50	9.3 #9	6.6 #73	15.9 #29
UNM allowed	6.2 #88	14.5 #133	20.7 #132	7.8 #114	7.2 #88	15.0 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.