UAB @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F13 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

UAB

1-3 · Power #102

final

Final

Tulane

3-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -22.5

✓ UAB W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 16–36 TULN

✓ TULN (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -22.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -22.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -22.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 22.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 35–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 59.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 20.9; 52.6 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB vs UTSA 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	21–13	L	U55.5
Close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-21	45–0	W	U58
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	UNC vs GT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.25	17–21	L	U63
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	20–13	L	U62.5
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Close	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5
Close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	HOU vs TEM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	43–36	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
TULN WLWL	2-2	50%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
TULN –UUU	0-3	0%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 41% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UABlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
TULNlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB+0.5 →−6.7▼ 7.2#96

TULN+6.3 →+2.1▼ 4.2#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UAB

Longer bar = better

TULN

#53

Offense

◀ UAB better

#81

#127

Defense

TULN better ▶

#31

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #47

73 plays #19

Pace

◀ UAB faster

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	UAB off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #75	16.0 #25	TULN
Yards / play	5.69 #69	4.63 #26	TULN
PPA / play	+0.21 #44	−0.02 #36	Even
Success rate	50% #24	36% #38	Even

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #72	36.3 #124	TULN
Yards / play	6.02 #54	6.56 #128	TULN
PPA / play	+0.01 #112	+0.26 #123	Even
Success rate	41% #85	51% #132	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	1.8 #121	12.5 #21	14.3 #75	4.3 #101	9.5 #23	13.8 #62
TULN allowed	1.8 #9	5.0 #40	6.8 #21	4.3 #52	5.0 #48	9.3 #40

TULN scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	10.3 #17	8.5 #72	18.8 #37	6.8 #61	3.0 #124	9.8 #105
UAB allowed	6.0 #91	14.8 #129	20.8 #125	7.8 #107	7.8 #94	15.5 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.