South Alabama @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F8 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

2-2 · Power #49

final

Final

James Madison

4-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -1

✓ JMU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 24–27 JMU

✓ JMU (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -1

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -1

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 1-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 31–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 2.9; 43.7 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	BSU vs AFA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–24	L	U52
Very close	APP vs UL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	21–24	L	U51.5
Very close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Very close	CAL vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	49–31	W	O50.5
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.25	28–14	W	U49
Very close	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
JMU LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA –UUO	1-2	33%	2-2
JMU UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USAlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-2 33%
JMUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−6.2 →−3.8▲ 2.4#82

JMU+5.1 →+1.3▼ 3.8#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USA

Longer bar = better

JMU

#48

Offense

Even

#54

#80

Defense

JMU better ▶

#47

+0.3 #64

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #76

62 plays #116

Pace

JMU faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #71	22.5 #57	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #38	5.41 #69	USA
PPA / play	+0.32 #18	+0.02 #49	USA
Success rate	42% #66	33% #14	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #46	23.8 #70	JMU
Yards / play	6.07 #53	5.69 #85	JMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.16 #100	JMU
Success rate	44% #49	40% #63	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USA scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.0 #60	7.5 #86	13.5 #79	6.0 #68	9.3 #33	15.3 #53
JMU allowed	1.8 #9	8.5 #87	10.3 #56	8.8 #114	3.5 #21	12.3 #80

JMU scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	10.0 #19	11.3 #35	21.3 #18	4.3 #101	8.3 #52	12.5 #74
USA allowed	2.5 #27	8.5 #87	11.0 #65	3.5 #34	9.3 #112	12.8 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.