Georgia Southern @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

4-1 · Power #92

final

Final

James Madison

5-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -5.5

✓ JMU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 26–31 JMU

✓ JMU (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -5.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 51% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -5.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 5.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 41–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 5.2; 57.9 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	LOU vs BC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-4	28–14	W	U57.5
Close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-4	14–40	L	U61
Close	NEV vs FRES 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	37–26	W	O59
Close	BSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	31–41	L	O59
Close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	28–13	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO PWLWW	3-1-1	75%	1-1	0-1
JMU LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
JMU UOUOO	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 44% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 5	4-1 80%	3-1-1 75%	1-4 20%
JMUlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO+2.5 →+1.9▼ 0.6#52

JMU+5.1 →+2.1▼ 3.0#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

GASO

Longer bar = better

JMU

#32

Offense

◀ GASO better

#62

#72

Defense

JMU better ▶

#31

0.0 #68

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #56

77 plays #7

Pace

◀ GASO faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #31	22.6 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.14 #49	5.19 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #36	−0.03 #24	Even
Success rate	51% #12	32% #8	Even

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #39	20.2 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #58	5.67 #79	JMU
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	+0.11 #78	Even
Success rate	41% #76	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	8.4 #32	12.2 #18	20.6 #12	9.6 #20	4.8 #105	14.4 #56
JMU allowed	1.4 #6	8.2 #85	9.6 #37	7.6 #101	5.4 #49	13.0 #79

JMU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	10.8 #12	11.0 #26	21.8 #8	3.4 #119	8.0 #46	11.4 #96
GASO allowed	1.4 #6	7.2 #67	8.6 #28	7.0 #92	4.6 #34	11.6 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.