UTEP @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Wed, Oct 11, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F2 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-5 · Power #115

▲ winner

Final

Florida International

3-3 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

FIU -3.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 21–24 FIU

✗ FIU (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFIU -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFIU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 43% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFIU -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 3.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTEP won 27–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 3.2; 43.6 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	WYO vs USU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.25	28–14	W	U44.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-3	0-3
FIU LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UOUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
FIU UOUU–	1-3	25%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 58% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEPlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
FIUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−4.4 →−12.9▼ 8.5#123

FIU−5.6 →−13.9▼ 8.3#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UTEP

Longer bar = better

FIU

#107

Offense

Even

#101

#104

Defense

FIU better ▶

#69

−1.3 #133

Turnovers

FIU better ▶

−0.2 #79

67 plays #73

Pace

◀ UTEP faster

58 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	UTEP off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #132	27.0 #81	FIU
Yards / play	5.21 #103	5.96 #98	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #95	+0.05 #52	FIU
Success rate	40% #99	38% #44	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #116	28.2 #88	UTEP
Yards / play	5.73 #71	6.23 #114	FIU
PPA / play	+0.01 #118	+0.22 #120	Even
Success rate	40% #97	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5 #112	5.2 #120	8.7 #123	2.8 #124	4.7 #107	7.5 #125
FIU allowed	6.2 #92	7.2 #63	13.3 #81	6.2 #75	7.5 #91	13.7 #89

FIU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	8.0 #34	7.3 #88	15.3 #67	4.0 #110	1.3 #132	5.3 #129
UTEP allowed	7.5 #113	7.5 #75	15.0 #91	6.3 #82	6.8 #76	13.2 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.