Ball State @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F17 mphgusts 32Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ball State

1-4 · Power #113

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

2-3 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -2.5

✓ EMU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

BALL 19–22 EMU

✓ EMU (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -2.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseEMU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseEMU -2.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 2.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.9 against an average line of 2.5; 52.7 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–33	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LPWLL	1-3-1	25%	0-2-1	0-3-1
EMU LWLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OUOUO	3-2	60%	1-4
EMU OUUUO	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 5	1-4 20%	1-3-1 25%	3-2 60%
EMUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−7.6 →−14.0▼ 6.4#128

EMU−3.1 →−14.4▼ 11.3#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BALL

Longer bar = better

EMU

#116

Offense

Even

#126

#117

Defense

EMU better ▶

#82

−0.8 #117

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+0.2 #52

64 plays #92

Pace

◀ BALL faster

56 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	BALL off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #126	22.4 #47	EMU
Yards / play	4.67 #124	5.96 #103	EMU
PPA / play	+0.02 #110	+0.10 #78	EMU
Success rate	39% #105	44% #98	Even

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #131	35.6 #125	Even
Yards / play	4.65 #126	6.28 #118	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #124	+0.26 #125	Even
Success rate	37% #123	44% #99	BALL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.0 #126	3.4 #128	5.4 #131	4.2 #106	8.2 #40	12.4 #83
EMU allowed	2.8 #24	7.2 #62	10.0 #43	8.6 #110	3.8 #20	12.4 #73

EMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.2 #82	6.0 #109	11.2 #112	2.6 #128	2.4 #130	5.0 #130
BALL allowed	4.8 #64	16.2 #133	21.0 #129	10.4 #128	4.2 #27	14.6 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.