Ball State @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-3 · Power #113

final

Final

Western Michigan

1-3 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -1.5

✓ WMU W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 25–27 WMU

✓ WMU (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWMU -1.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWMU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWMU -1.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 1.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 42–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 50, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 2.6; 55.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Very close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Close	RICE vs USM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.25	24–19	W	U45
Close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	37–30	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LPWL	1-2-1	33%	0-1-1	0-2-1
WMU WLLW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3
WMU UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 69 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 4	1-3 25%	1-2-1 33%	2-2 50%
WMUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BALL 22–30 WMU WMU leads · 52 games since 1971 · WMU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−7.6 →−12.5▼ 4.9#125

WMU−3.0 →−13.8▼ 10.8#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BALL

Longer bar = better

WMU

#123

Offense

Even

#113

#112

Defense

Even

#116

−0.8 #110

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

−0.3 #87

65 plays #94

Pace

WMU faster ▶

75 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #129	38.8 #131	Even
Yards / play	4.41 #131	6.51 #126	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #120	+0.21 #113	Even
Success rate	38% #113	43% #95	Even

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #114	34.0 #121	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #120	6.33 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #102	+0.21 #114	Even
Success rate	37% #117	43% #92	BALL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	1.8 #124	2.5 #128	4.3 #132	3.5 #112	8.5 #46	12.0 #77
WMU allowed	7.8 #117	13.0 #126	20.8 #126	10.3 #125	7.8 #96	18.0 #124

WMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.0 #48	8.5 #72	15.5 #63	1.8 #129	3.5 #116	5.3 #129
BALL allowed	4.3 #60	15.0 #131	19.3 #121	11.3 #128	3.5 #20	14.8 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.