Old Dominion @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

2-2 · Power #97

final

Final

Marshall

3-0 · Power #96

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -14.5

✓ ODU W

Total

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 17–31 MRSH

✓ MRSH (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -14.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMRSH -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -14.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 14.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 41–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 47, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 14.7; 49.8 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Very close	UAB vs LT 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-13.75	52–38	W	O49
Very close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-16	38–21	W	O46
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU LWW–	2-1	67%	0-1	2-1
MRSH LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU OOU–	2-1	67%	2-2
MRSH UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 62 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
MRSHlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−5.2 →−11.1▼ 5.9#120

MRSH−2.3 →−1.7▲ 0.6#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ODU

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#106

Offense

MRSH better ▶

#86

#64

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#16

−1.5 #133

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

−0.3 #94

62 plays #117

Pace

MRSH faster ▶

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	ODU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #101	15.7 #22	MRSH
Yards / play	5.41 #89	4.38 #16	MRSH
PPA / play	−0.09 #130	−0.11 #8	MRSH
Success rate	39% #102	34% #17	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	MRSH off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #90	25.8 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.95 #61	4.92 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.03 #53	ODU
Success rate	38% #112	42% #81	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	1.8 #124	9.3 #56	11.0 #104	8.8 #32	2.5 #128	11.3 #91
MRSH allowed	2.3 #24	5.3 #51	7.7 #31	5.7 #84	2.3 #8	8.0 #29

MRSH scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	0.0 #133	9.0 #63	9.0 #119	7.0 #53	9.3 #30	16.3 #38
ODU allowed	3.0 #36	5.3 #48	8.3 #35	7.5 #103	10.0 #120	17.5 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.