Troy @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Troy

2-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

4-0 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

GAST -1

✓ TROY W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 26–28 GAST

✗ GAST (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -1

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGAST -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -1

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 1-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 28–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 2.6; 45.2 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.25	28–14	W	U49
Very close	DUKE vs UVA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2	38–17	W	P55
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Close	UTSA vs UAB 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3.75	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Close	BSU vs AFA 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3	17–24	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-1
GAST LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
GAST OUOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 4	2-2 50%	0-4 0%	2-2 50%
GASTlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TROY 7–4 GAST TROY leads · 11 games since 2013 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY0.0 →−2.1▼ 2.1#74

GAST−3.6 →−0.9▲ 2.7#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TROY

Longer bar = better

GAST

#89

Offense

GAST better ▶

#41

#56

Defense

Even

#65

−1.5 #131

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+1.3 #11

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ TROY faster

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: GAST defense

	TROY off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #87	22.8 #61	GAST
Yards / play	6.02 #56	5.81 #95	TROY
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.05 #56	GAST
Success rate	38% #114	37% #47	GAST

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #29	28.0 #98	GAST
Yards / play	6.49 #36	4.92 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #29	−0.02 #38	Even
Success rate	42% #70	38% #48	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	5.3 #80	9.3 #60	14.5 #73	5.0 #89	6.0 #78	11.0 #99
GAST allowed	0.8 #5	6.0 #50	6.8 #18	9.0 #115	7.0 #82	16.0 #113

GAST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	8.8 #31	11.0 #32	19.8 #28	9.5 #29	7.8 #56	17.3 #34
TROY allowed	5.0 #78	10.3 #107	15.3 #98	4.3 #51	8.5 #102	12.8 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.