App State @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

App State

2-2 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

2-1 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

APP -13.5

✓ ULM W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 33–21 ULM

✓ APP (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -13.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -13.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 13.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 41–40; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 50.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 51%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.8 against an average line of 12.6; 62.6 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-13	38–7	W	P45
Close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Close	ORST @ COLO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	34–37	L	O55.5
Close	STAN @ VAN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-13	41–23	W	O49
Close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	BSU @ HAW 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	40–32	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LWWP	2-1-1	67%	1-0-1	1-1
ULM WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: APP away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
ULM –UU	0-2	0%	2-1

Went over in Q2. Of 83 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APPlast 4	2-2 50%	2-1-1 67%	3-1 75%
ULMlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

APP 7–1 ULM APP leads · 8 games since 2014 · APP has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−1.3 →−3.0▼ 1.7#77

ULM+0.7 →−7.9▼ 8.6#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

APP

Longer bar = better

ULM

#56

Offense

◀ APP better

#114

#83

Defense

Even

#90

+0.5 #37

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+1.7 #5

80 plays #4

Pace

◀ APP faster

58 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #34	24.7 #69	APP
Yards / play	5.61 #76	5.82 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #59	+0.19 #111	APP
Success rate	44% #53	43% #87	APP

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	ULM off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #133	28.5 #94	APP
Yards / play	5.23 #102	5.38 #63	APP
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.09 #72	APP
Success rate	36% #129	44% #104	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

APP scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.8 #73	7.3 #91	13.0 #82	11.0 #11	9.5 #25	20.5 #8
ULM allowed	3.3 #40	9.0 #97	12.3 #73	3.3 #31	9.0 #110	12.3 #73

ULM scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	2.3 #121	6.7 #99	9.0 #120	0.0 #133	5.7 #86	5.7 #129
APP allowed	1.8 #12	10.3 #109	12.0 #69	7.8 #108	5.5 #56	13.3 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.