App State @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Wyoming

Weather at kickoff60°F13 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

App State

2-1 · Power #61

final

Final

Wyoming

2-1 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

WYO -3

Push

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 23–26 WYO

✓ WYO (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -3

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWYO -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -3

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as a 3-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 22–19; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 3; 48.2 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	TROY vs JMU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–16	L	U46.25
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Close	TULN vs ARMY 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	38–12	W	O46.5
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	23–21	L	U45
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
WYO WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; WYO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
WYO –UU	0-2	0%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 52% of games with totals 41–49 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APPlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%
WYOlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−1.3 →−4.0▼ 2.7#82

WYO−2.7 →−6.6▼ 3.9#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

APP

Longer bar = better

WYO

#44

Offense

◀ APP better

#101

#98

Defense

WYO better ▶

#79

+1.0 #27

Turnovers

◀ APP better

−0.3 #102

76 plays #12

Pace

◀ APP faster

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #19	27.0 #91	APP
Yards / play	6.00 #65	5.17 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #40	+0.09 #80	APP
Success rate	45% #52	41% #84	APP

When WYO has the ball

Even matchup

	WYO off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #87	30.7 #110	WYO
Yards / play	4.93 #107	5.46 #75	APP
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.13 #97	Even
Success rate	39% #100	45% #108	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

APP scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.7 #68	7.7 #86	13.3 #83	14.7 #1	10.3 #15	25.0 #2
WYO allowed	6.7 #100	5.7 #50	12.3 #79	0.0 #1	10.3 #121	10.3 #63

WYO scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	7.0 #48	5.7 #113	12.7 #90	6.7 #63	1.0 #129	7.7 #119
APP allowed	2.3 #19	11.3 #115	13.7 #88	10.3 #124	2.3 #9	12.7 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.