Virginia Tech @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Marshall

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

1-2 · Power #41

final

Final

Marshall

2-0 · Power #96

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -6.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 19–24 MRSH

✓ MRSH (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -6.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMRSH -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -6.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 6.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MRSH won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 5.9; 39.8 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3	27–10	W	U45
Close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	34–17	W	O47
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Close	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Close	ARMY vs NAVY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	15–0	W	U35.5
Close	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
MRSH LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
MRSH UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 58% of games with totals 39–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MRSHlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

VT 12–3 MRSH VT leads · 15 games since 1913 · VT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →−2.5▼ 6.1#74

MRSH−2.3 →−3.5▼ 1.2#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#116

Offense

MRSH better ▶

#87

#65

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#19

0.0 #78

Turnovers

◀ VT better

−0.3 #95

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ VT faster

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	VT off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #106	15.7 #28	MRSH
Yards / play	4.86 #121	4.38 #17	MRSH
PPA / play	−0.05 #125	−0.11 #11	MRSH
Success rate	38% #110	34% #20	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	MRSH off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #90	25.0 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.95 #62	5.22 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #83	+0.06 #64	Even
Success rate	38% #111	38% #53	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

VT scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	0.7 #129	11.3 #43	12.0 #99	7.0 #52	4.0 #109	11.0 #93
MRSH allowed	0.0	6.5	6.5	8.5	0.0	8.5

MRSH scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	0.0	5.0	5.0	7.0	14.0	21.0
VT allowed	4.7 #70	11.3 #112	16.0 #105	2.3 #19	7.0 #78	9.3 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.