New Mexico @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F15 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico

2-2 · Power #117

final

Final

Wyoming

3-1 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

WYO -14.5

✓ UNM W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 15–29 WYO

✓ WYO (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -14.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWYO -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -14.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as a 14.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 35–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 40.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 14.3; 48.9 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	38–21	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
WYO WLWP	2-1-1	67%	1-1-1	0-1-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; WYO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOUO	3-1	75%	2-2
WYO –UUU	0-3	0%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 20 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNMlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
WYOlast 4	3-1 75%	2-1-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.8 →−10.7▲ 1.1#117

WYO−2.7 →−5.1▼ 2.4#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UNM

Longer bar = better

WYO

#40

Offense

◀ UNM better

#105

#122

Defense

WYO better ▶

#64

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

WYO better ▶

0.0 #82

61 plays #121

Pace

Even

60 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #67	25.0 #75	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #40	5.01 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #23	+0.05 #58	UNM
Success rate	48% #29	42% #79	UNM

When WYO has the ball

Even matchup

	WYO off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #91	30.0 #107	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #114	6.36 #121	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #117	+0.28 #127	Even
Success rate	39% #99	50% #131	WYO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	6.0 #62	12.3 #22	18.3 #40	6.0 #73	3.5 #119	9.5 #109
WYO allowed	6.5 #102	5.8 #49	12.3 #73	0.0 #1	9.5 #116	9.5 #43

WYO scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	5.3 #79	6.0 #107	11.3 #104	5.0 #89	4.5 #105	9.5 #109
UNM allowed	3.5 #47	15.5 #132	19.0 #120	3.3 #30	7.0 #82	10.3 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.