Akron @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Indiana

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-2 · Power #130

final

Final

Indiana

1-2 · Power #89

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -16.5

✓ AKR W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 14–29 IU

✓ IU (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIU -16.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIU -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIU -16.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 16.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 14.8; 48.9 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form	-14	17–14	L	U49
Close	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-13	39–21	W	O49.75
Close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-14	30–0	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
IU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR –UU	0-2	0%	1-2
IU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in OT. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%
IUlast 3	1-2 33%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−1.0 →−9.1▼ 8.1#112

IU−10.1 →−5.2▲ 4.9#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

AKR

Longer bar = better

#130

Offense

IU better ▶

#99

#60

Defense

◀ AKR better

#75

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+0.3 #50

61 plays #119

Pace

IU faster ▶

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	AKR off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #128	17.0 #33	IU
Yards / play	4.33 #133	5.20 #58	IU
PPA / play	−0.18 #135	+0.14 #98	IU
Success rate	36% #125	46% #112	Even

When IU has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	IU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #118	26.7 #91	AKR
Yards / play	5.53 #84	5.25 #62	AKR
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	−0.02 #40	AKR
Success rate	39% #100	37% #45	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.3 #109	9.3 #54	12.7 #90	1.0 #129	2.3 #128	3.3 #130
IU allowed	4.7 #79	8.0 #88	12.7 #83	3.3 #37	1.0 #2	4.3 #9

IU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	7.0 #50	2.0 #131	9.0 #119	7.0 #48	3.3 #120	10.3 #98
AKR allowed	2.3 #19	8.0 #88	10.3 #61	9.0 #118	7.3 #94	16.3 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.