Louisville vs Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Louisville

2-0 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Indiana

1-1 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

LOU -10

✓ IU W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 32–21 IU

✓ LOU (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -10

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -10

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 10-point neutral-site favorite against IU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 21–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 51, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 11; 54.4 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Loose	ECU vs USF 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9.5	48–28	W	O55.5
Loose	FRES vs UTEP 2021 · Postseason · loose	-13	31–24	L	O54.5
Loose	UL vs UTSA 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-14	31–24	L	O54.5
Loose	MICH vs IOWA 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-12	42–3	W	O44
Loose	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75
Loose	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Loose	WISC vs WAKE 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-10	42–28	W	O51.5
Loose	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-7	16–21	L	U45
Loose	NEB vs NU 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar total	-12.25	28–31	L	O52.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LOU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1
IU WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: LOU neutral, as favorite; IU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU –O	1-0	100%	2-0
IU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 65% of games with totals 47–55 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOUlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
IUlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+2.1 →+6.6▲ 4.5#27

IU−10.1 →−5.5▲ 4.6#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LOU

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

◀ LOU better

#98

#65

Defense

◀ LOU better

#79

+0.7 #36

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

+0.3 #54

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ LOU faster

64 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #29	17.0 #41	Even
Yards / play	7.74 #9	5.20 #69	LOU
PPA / play	+0.43 #11	+0.14 #99	LOU
Success rate	53% #17	46% #107	LOU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	IU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #117	16.0 #39	LOU
Yards / play	5.53 #82	5.46 #84	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #90	+0.05 #62	LOU
Success rate	39% #103	40% #76	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.5	14.0	20.5	12.0	15.0	27.0
IU allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	5.0	1.5	6.5

IU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	10.5	3.0	13.5	3.5	5.0	8.5
LOU allowed	0.0	14.0	14.0	0.0	3.0	3.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.