Wake Forest @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Old Dominion

Weather at kickoff75°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

2-0 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

Old Dominion

1-1 · Power #97

final

Closing spread

WAKE -13.5

✓ ODU W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 33–20 ODU

✓ WAKE (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWAKE -13.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWAKE -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWAKE -13.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 13.5-point road favorite at ODU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 60, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 13.3; 63 points a game (usually 56). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Very close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	41–7	W	U56
Close	CCU @ ULM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	28–21	L	U58
Close	WAKE @ SYR 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-14	38–14	W	U59.5
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	FRES @ HAW 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.75	24–27	L	U64.25
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-13.5	54–42	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
ODU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; ODU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OO	2-0	100%	2-0
ODU OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 37% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKElast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
ODUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+1.2 →+4.7▲ 3.5#35

ODU−5.2 →−8.0▼ 2.8#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WAKE

Longer bar = better

ODU

#68

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#97

#41

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#88

+0.7 #33

Turnovers

◀ WAKE better

−0.7 #105

74 plays #21

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

62 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #51	31.3 #111	WAKE
Yards / play	5.92 #65	5.28 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.06 #68	ODU
Success rate	44% #61	45% #100	WAKE

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	ODU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #86	20.3 #54	WAKE
Yards / play	5.34 #98	5.10 #61	WAKE
PPA / play	−0.04 #124	−0.13 #15	WAKE
Success rate	42% #78	35% #34	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.5	17.5	24.0	4.5	8.0	12.5
ODU allowed	6.0	10.5	16.5	7.0	10.0	17.0

ODU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	3.5	10.0	13.5	10.5	3.5	14.0
WAKE allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	4.5	11.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.