Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F11 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia Tech

1-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

3-0 · Power #81

final

Closing spread

WAKE -3.5

✓ GT W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 28–31 WAKE

✗ WAKE (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWAKE -3.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWAKE -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWAKE -3.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 3.5-point home favorite against GT, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 30–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.8; 56.2 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	14–40	L	U61
Very close	BSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–41	L	O59
Very close	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	BSU vs OKST 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–21	L	U58
Very close	WAKE vs FSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	35–14	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
WAKE LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT –OO	2-0	100%	1-2
WAKE OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 41% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-0 100%
WAKElast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT−2.1 →+0.3▲ 2.4#63

WAKE+1.2 →+2.4▲ 1.2#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#31

Offense

◀ GT better

#65

#129

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#39

−0.3 #86

Turnovers

WAKE better ▶

+0.7 #33

75 plays #14

Pace

Even

74 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #36	20.3 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #24	5.10 #56	GT
PPA / play	+0.28 #33	−0.13 #12	WAKE
Success rate	48% #32	35% #32	Even

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #45	33.3 #117	WAKE
Yards / play	5.92 #64	7.23 #133	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.38 #133	WAKE
Success rate	44% #54	51% #133	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

GT scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	4.7 #87	15.0 #15	19.7 #33	8.0 #40	7.3 #56	15.3 #49
WAKE allowed	0.0 #1	10.3 #107	10.3 #61	7.0 #95	3.0 #17	10.0 #54

WAKE scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	4.3 #94	11.7 #36	16.0 #55	7.3 #48	10.0 #24	17.3 #31
GT allowed	5.3 #91	4.3 #34	9.7 #56	10.3 #123	13.3 #130	23.7 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.