Wake Forest @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Clemson · Conference game

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Wake Forest

3-1 · Power #81

final

Final

Clemson

3-2 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -20

✓ WAKE W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

WAKE 15–34 CLEM

✓ CLEM (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -20

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLEM -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -20

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 20-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 17–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 25.7 against an average line of 19.3; 57.3 points a game (usually 56.2).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Very close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-19	52–21	W	O67
Very close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	APP vs USA 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-21.5	31–7	W	U51.75
Close	ND vs GT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-18	55–0	W	U57.75
Close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Close	UCF vs TULN 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	51–34	L	O71
Close	UNC vs DUKE 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	38–7	W	U74

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWLL	1-3	25%	0-1	—
CLEM LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1
CLEM –OOUU	2-2	50%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKElast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
CLEMlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+1.2 →−0.6▼ 1.8#62

CLEM−4.1 →+13.3▲ 17.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WAKE

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#77

Offense

CLEM better ▶

#46

#38

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#18

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

+0.4 #47

76 plays #9

Pace

Even

77 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: CLEM defense

	WAKE off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #71	20.8 #42	CLEM
Yards / play	5.64 #78	4.24 #5	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	−0.11 #9	CLEM
Success rate	44% #52	34% #16	CLEM

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #35	22.8 #52	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #61	5.42 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	−0.05 #22	WAKE
Success rate	50% #14	34% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	4.0 #104	8.8 #69	12.8 #91	7.0 #57	9.3 #23	16.3 #35
CLEM allowed	4.8 #64	4.0 #14	8.8 #31	3.4 #33	7.2 #86	10.6 #53

CLEM scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	10.2 #19	10.4 #38	20.6 #15	9.0 #29	5.6 #90	14.6 #55
WAKE allowed	1.8 #12	11.0 #117	12.8 #72	5.3 #64	4.8 #45	10.0 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.