North Texas @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Navy · Conference game

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North Texas

2-2 · Power #103

final

Final

Navy

1-3 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -5

✓ UNT W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

UNT 27–32 NAVY

✓ NAVY (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNAVY -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line context

Home favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 63%, covered 51% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 5-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 4.6; 52 points a game (usually 54).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs UNT 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	35–52	L	O71.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	TROY vs WKU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–24	L	U57
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	10–7	L	U45
Close	TLSA vs MEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–29	W	O60.5
Close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	14–33	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-0
NAVY LLWL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT –OOO	3-0	100%	2-2
NAVY –UOO	2-1	67%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNTlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	3-0 100%
NAVYlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UNT 1–2 NAVY NAVY leads · 3 games since 2007 · UNT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−15.5 →−9.8▲ 5.7#112

NAVY−15.5 →−7.0▲ 8.5#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UNT

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#46

Offense

◀ UNT better

#106

#128

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#95

0.0 #74

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+1.0 #13

75 plays #12

Pace

◀ UNT faster

62 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #26	28.5 #90	UNT
Yards / play	6.26 #41	5.65 #78	UNT
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	+0.13 #87	UNT
Success rate	43% #61	47% #123	UNT

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	43.0 #134	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #92	6.75 #129	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.25 #123	Even
Success rate	39% #104	47% #126	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.8 #7	11.0 #30	23.8 #7	7.0 #57	5.5 #94	12.5 #82
NAVY allowed	7.0 #107	9.3 #98	16.3 #103	5.3 #64	7.0 #80	12.3 #71

NAVY scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	8.8 #31	4.0 #125	12.8 #91	2.5 #129	5.0 #99	7.5 #124
UNT allowed	7.0 #107	13.3 #129	20.3 #127	10.8 #130	12.0 #131	22.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.