South Florida @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

3-2 · Power #95

final

Final

UAB

1-4 · Power #102

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -3

✓ UAB W

Total

▲ Over · 91 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 32–30 UAB

✗ USF (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -3

Total68

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSF -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close68

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSF -3

Total68

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 3-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 56–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 91 points went over 68, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 3; 67.1 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	28–45	L	O67.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–52	L	O64.5
Very close	CLT @ UNT 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	49–21	W	O66
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	ARST @ TXST 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	45–47	L	O69
Very close	KENT @ OHIO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	34–27	W	U68.5
Very close	LT @ UNT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	42–31	W	O65.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–21	W	U63.5
Very close	WMU @ BALL 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–30	L	U66

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	0-1
UAB WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF –UUOO	2-2	50%	3-2
UAB UOOOU	3-2	60%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 6 earlier overs in games with totals 64–72, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USFlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
UABlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USF 3–2 UAB USF leads · 5 games since 2003 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.1 →−5.0▼ 1.9#87

UAB+0.5 →−7.2▼ 7.7#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USF

Longer bar = better

UAB

#93

Offense

UAB better ▶

#56

#75

Defense

◀ USF better

#128

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

UAB better ▶

+0.4 #41

80 plays #3

Pace

◀ USF faster

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #65	36.0 #127	USF
Yards / play	5.47 #90	6.65 #127	USF
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.27 #126	USF
Success rate	38% #116	50% #131	Even

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #83	28.2 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.72 #77	5.87 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.13 #85	UAB
Success rate	50% #16	37% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USF scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.2 #36	7.8 #84	16.0 #58	7.0 #58	7.2 #60	14.2 #59
UAB allowed	6.2 #94	13.2 #128	19.4 #124	9.0 #115	7.6 #93	16.6 #116

UAB scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	2.0 #128	13.4 #14	15.4 #66	3.4 #116	8.2 #39	11.6 #92
USF allowed	7.0 #108	6.6 #53	13.6 #80	6.8 #87	7.8 #98	14.6 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.