UAB @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

UAB

2-4 · Power #102

final

Final

UTSA

2-3 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -7.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 27–34 UTSA

✓ UTSA (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -7.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 61% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -7.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 7.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 61 points stayed under 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 6.7; 60.5 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs KENT 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.75	64–31	W	O68.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.75	31–17	W	U63.5
Very close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5
Very close	KENT vs BUFF 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	48–38	W	O66
Close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5
Close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Close	UNT vs LT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	47–27	W	O68.25
Close	LOU vs FSU 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	48–16	W	O62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1
UTSA LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-2	1-3

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB OOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4
UTSA UUOP–	1-2-1	33%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 39% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UABlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
UTSAlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	1-2-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB+0.5 →−5.0▼ 5.5#91

UTSA+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UAB

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#34

Offense

◀ UAB better

#92

#126

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#82

+0.7 #25

Turnovers

◀ UAB better

−1.0 #132

74 plays #13

Pace

Even

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #49	29.2 #95	UAB
Yards / play	6.10 #53	5.54 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #21	+0.15 #92	UAB
Success rate	50% #11	42% #74	UAB

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #91	35.8 #126	UTSA
Yards / play	5.44 #90	6.48 #127	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.22 #120	UTSA
Success rate	40% #92	48% #129	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.2 #86	13.5 #7	18.7 #31	5.2 #86	8.0 #42	13.2 #70
UTSA allowed	9.8 #125	8.6 #89	18.4 #121	3.4 #21	7.4 #88	10.8 #48

UTSA scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	3.4 #113	8.4 #71	11.8 #102	7.0 #56	6.4 #76	13.4 #69
UAB allowed	7.5 #111	11.0 #118	18.5 #122	8.7 #115	8.7 #104	17.3 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.