UTSA @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

3-3 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

3-3 · Power #105

final

Closing spread

UTSA -2.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 28–26 FAU

✓ UTSA (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 2.5-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 36–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 58.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 2.8; 53.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ EMU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	12–13	L	U58.5
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–44	L	O62
Very close	STAN @ ORST 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	27–24	W	U55
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–17	W	U57
Very close	BC @ GT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	41–30	W	O55
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3
FAU LLWLW	2-4	33%	0-3	2-1

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UOP–U	1-3-1	25%	3-3
FAU UOU–O	3-2	60%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 46% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSAlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	1-3-1 25%
FAUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.7 →−2.4▼ 3.1#79

FAU−0.2 →−4.0▼ 3.8#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UTSA

Longer bar = better

FAU

#81

Offense

Even

#90

#77

Defense

Even

#68

−0.5 #111

Turnovers

FAU better ▶

−0.2 #84

72 plays #30

Pace

Even

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #73	23.2 #55	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #93	5.32 #52	FAU
PPA / play	+0.08 #84	+0.08 #63	FAU
Success rate	42% #74	44% #101	UTSA

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #85	27.7 #86	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #87	5.47 #63	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.14 #91	Even
Success rate	40% #94	41% #66	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.3 #58	7.5 #82	13.8 #74	7.0 #54	7.0 #61	14.0 #58
FAU allowed	4.5 #59	10.5 #116	15.0 #97	4.3 #42	3.8 #16	8.2 #19

FAU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	7.5 #37	6.8 #101	14.3 #70	5.8 #78	6.3 #78	12.2 #85
UTSA allowed	9.3 #124	8.2 #85	17.5 #116	4.0 #34	6.2 #64	10.2 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.