Charlotte @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F14 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Charlotte

1-5 · Power #124

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

1-5 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

ECU -6

✓ CLT W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 16–22 ECU

✗ ECU (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseECU -6

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseECU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4–8 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseECU -6

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 6-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLT won 10–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 6.5; 40.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	38–21	W	O42
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Very close	FAU vs WKU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	10–6	L	U38
Very close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Very close	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Very close	WYO vs USU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.25	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	35–13	W	O38

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT WLWWL	3-3	50%	3-0	3-2
ECU LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
ECU OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 35.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLTlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
ECUlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−0.6 →−11.5▼ 10.9#119

ECU−10.0 →−7.9▲ 2.1#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CLT

Longer bar = better

ECU

#130

Offense

Even

#132

#78

Defense

ECU better ▶

#50

−0.7 #116

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

−0.2 #80

63 plays #105

Pace

ECU faster ▶

70 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	CLT off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #132	26.5 #76	ECU
Yards / play	4.79 #124	5.26 #49	ECU
PPA / play	−0.08 #131	+0.09 #67	ECU
Success rate	34% #133	33% #8	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: CLT defense

	ECU off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #121	25.3 #70	CLT
Yards / play	4.31 #135	6.15 #111	CLT
PPA / play	−0.12 #136	+0.12 #83	CLT
Success rate	33% #134	39% #48	CLT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.3 #129	6.2 #111	8.5 #125	3.5 #121	3.3 #128	6.8 #126
ECU allowed	5.7 #83	6.5 #48	12.2 #66	5.7 #72	8.7 #106	14.3 #91

ECU scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	3.8 #109	8.3 #69	12.2 #95	2.8 #126	4.2 #118	7.0 #124
CLT allowed	5.2 #70	5.7 #34	10.8 #52	7.0 #92	7.5 #91	14.5 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.