North Texas @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

3-3 · Power #103

final

Final

Tulane

5-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -20

✓ UNT W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 22–41 TULN

✓ TULN (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -20

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close63.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -20

Total63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 20-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 35–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 63 points stayed under 63.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.2 against an average line of 19.5; 54 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs GAST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-18	17–13	L	U63
Very close	TULN vs UAB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-22	35–23	L	U58.5
Close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-19	52–21	W	O67
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	45–0	W	U58
Close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.75	45–20	W	U67.75
Close	UAB vs UTSA 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	21–13	L	U55.5
Close	WIS vs GASO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-20.5	35–14	W	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-0
TULN LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-3	3-2

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OOO–U	3-1	75%	3-3
TULN UUUUU	0-5	0%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNTlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-1 75%
TULNlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	0-5 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−15.5 →−7.7▲ 7.8#102

TULN+6.3 →+4.7▼ 1.6#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UNT

Longer bar = better

TULN

#38

Offense

◀ UNT better

#62

#122

Defense

TULN better ▶

#39

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

TULN better ▶

+0.5 #32

74 plays #14

Pace

◀ UNT faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #24	18.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #32	5.06 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #43	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	44% #53	40% #56	Even

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #59	35.5 #123	TULN
Yards / play	6.14 #50	6.20 #116	TULN
PPA / play	+0.10 #75	+0.21 #119	TULN
Success rate	42% #64	48% #128	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	11.3 #8	10.2 #38	21.5 #7	5.8 #77	8.3 #36	14.2 #57
TULN allowed	1.7 #6	8.5 #86	10.2 #39	4.0 #34	3.8 #17	7.8 #18

TULN scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	9.2 #18	7.3 #86	16.5 #52	8.0 #34	5.5 #94	13.5 #66
UNT allowed	5.8 #85	12.2 #127	18.0 #120	8.3 #111	9.2 #114	17.5 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.